Logistics News Update – 31st March 2026

Welcome to another Logistics News Update. 

We are seeing strong warnings from the Road Freight Association around a sharp increase in fuel prices, with current projections indicating that diesel could increase by around R10 per litre from 1 April if oil prices remain above $100 and the rand stays under pressure. While the exact increase is not yet confirmed, the direction is clear. Sustained increases in oil prices are already feeding into higher transport costs, which will flow directly into fuel levies and overall logistics pricing.

Our advice is simple. Start factoring higher fuel costs into your planning and costing now, rather than reacting after the adjustment takes effect.

Agri & Transport Summary

South Africa’s agricultural export season is gaining momentum, with volumes increasing through the ports following the post-Chinese New Year recovery. Port performance has improved overall, with Durban operating efficiently and minimal delays, while Cape Town has recovered from earlier weather disruptions but remains sensitive to wind conditions. The key pressure point is now shifting from capacity to cost. Rising oil prices and the impact of the Middle East conflict are expected to drive a significant increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment cycle. This will place direct pressure on trucking rates, fuel levies, and overall logistics costs.

For exporters, particularly in the agricultural sector, the focus should now be on planning and cost management. Securing transport capacity early and reviewing cost assumptions will be critical as fuel-driven pressure begins to move through the supply chain.

Fuel costs becoming the next pressure point in global logistics

Oil prices have moved above $100 per barrel due to the situation in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global oil, so when there is disruption, energy prices go up. That is already starting to impact logistics. Shipping lines are paying more for fuel, airlines are adding surcharges, and transporters are facing higher diesel costs.

For South Africa, the impact is straightforward. We are expecting a fuel price increase in April, with petrol likely up around R4 per litre and diesel potentially above R6/R7 depending on how the oil price and rand move. This means the next cost pressure in logistics is not coming from space or delays, but from fuel.

What to expect:

The main risk over the next few weeks is higher costs, not disruption. South African ports are running, and cargo is still moving. However, fuel increases will start feeding into shipping surcharges, airfreight costs, and especially inland transport. For importers and exporters, the focus now needs to be on managing these cost increases rather than worrying about capacity constraints.

Disclaimer: Fuel price estimates are indicative only and are based on current market conditions and available Central Energy Fund data. Final fuel prices are determined by the South African Department of Mineral Resources and Energy and may change depending on movements in the oil price and the rand before the official adjustment date.

Let’s Learn – Why fuel impacts your total landed cost more than you think

Many importers and exporters look at freight rates in isolation. In reality, fuel is one of the largest hidden drivers of total logistics cost, and when it moves sharply, it affects far more than just the transport line item.

Why this matters now:
With fuel prices expected to increase significantly, the impact will not only be seen in trucking rates. Fuel feeds into ocean freight through bunker costs, airfreight through jet fuel, and inland distribution through diesel pricing. These increases often flow through quickly in the form of surcharges and rate adjustments across the entire supply chain.

Where the risk shows up:
• Increased fuel levies on road transport
• Bunker adjustments and surcharges on ocean freight
• Higher airfreight rates linked to jet fuel costs
• Rising inland distribution and last-mile delivery costs

Playbook:
Do not look at fuel as a separate cost. Build it into your total landed cost model, review pricing more frequently, and allow for short-term volatility when planning shipments. In a rising fuel environment, cost control comes from planning and visibility rather than chasing the lowest rate.

Here is your weekly logistics news:

Logistics & Trade Headlines

• Fuel price shock now confirmed for April adjustment: Latest data indicates a significant increase in diesel and petrol prices, driven by oil above $100 and a weaker rand, placing immediate pressure on transport and logistics costs.
• Global risk shifting from disruption to cost escalation: While major container routes remain operational, rising fuel costs and war-risk premiums are now the primary drivers of freight pricing globally.
• No direct disruption to South Africa’s main trade lanes: Asia to South Africa container routes remain unaffected from a routing perspective, with the impact being indirect through cost increases rather than physical delays.
• Bunker fuel costs now driving freight rate direction: Shipping lines are facing higher operating costs, with fuel becoming the dominant factor influencing rate increases across global trade lanes.
• Airfreight capacity tightening through Middle East hubs: Flight disruptions and airspace restrictions linked to the Iran conflict are reducing uplift capacity and placing upward pressure on air cargo rates.
• Port performance stable with no major congestion reported: South African ports are operating within normal parameters, with no widespread backlog or anchorage pressure evident this week.
• Rail decline increasing reliance on road transport: Reduced rail volumes, particularly out of Durban, are continuing to push cargo onto road, increasing exposure to rising fuel costs.
• Road transport under immediate cost pressure: Transporters are preparing for significant increases in fuel levies, which will directly impact trucking rates and inland distribution costs.
• Supply chain pressure building inland rather than at ports: The main risk is shifting away from port congestion toward higher transport costs and inland distribution challenges.
• South African impact remains cost-driven: The primary effect of current global conditions is higher fuel, freight, and logistics costs rather than direct disruption to cargo flows.

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NEWS

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Port Operations Summary: – Port Update:

Key Highlights from Last Week’s Discussions – 22^nd March 2026
Source: BUSA, SAAFF, and global logistics data

Port Operations

Port performance remains stable, with no major congestion reported across key terminals this week.
• Operations across Durban and Ngqura remain steady with normal vessel activity
• Cape Town continues to operate within normal parameters but remains weather sensitive
• No significant backlog or anchorage pressure reported
Takeaway:
Ports are currently stable, with no congestion-driven disruption. The main risk is shifting toward cost rather than operational performance.

Air Cargo

Airfreight is beginning to feel pressure from geopolitical disruptions.
• Reduced capacity linked to Middle East airspace disruptions and flight cancellations
• Gulf carrier disruptions continue to impact routing and uplift capacity
• Rates expected to come under upward pressure as capacity tightens
Takeaway:
Airfreight remains operational but is becoming more sensitive to geopolitical risk and capacity constraints.

Road and Border Crossings

Road transport remains stable but is facing increasing cost pressure.
• No major deterioration in border crossing times reported this week
• Regional corridors remain operational with ongoing structural inefficiencies
• Transporters preparing for significant fuel-related cost increases
Takeaway:
Road networks remain functional, but cost pressure is building rapidly due to expected fuel increases.

Ocean Freight and Global Shipping

Global shipping is shifting from rate weakness to cost-driven pressure.
• Oil prices above $100 per barrel are increasing bunker fuel costs
• War-risk insurance premiums rising due to Middle East tensions
• Some rerouting and network adjustments adding to transit time and cost
• No direct disruption to South Africa’s main Far East container routes
Takeaway:
The primary global shipping risk is now cost escalation rather than route disruption.

Strategic Outlook

The biggest shift this week is the move from operational risk to cost pressure across the supply chain. With fuel prices expected to increase sharply, transport, freight and landed costs will rise across all sectors. Businesses should begin adjusting budgets, reviewing pricing and planning for a higher cost environment in the coming weeks.

Global Freight Rates

Drewry’s World Container Index continues to show upward pressure, with rates increasing again this week as cost factors begin to outweigh demand-driven pricing. While the pace of increase remains moderate, the underlying trend is firm as carriers respond to rising bunker fuel costs and geopolitical risk.

On the Asia – Europe trade, rates are holding and beginning to edge upward again. Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Genoa remain supported by controlled capacity and increasing operating costs. Carriers are maintaining discipline through selective blank sailings, with the focus now on protecting margins rather than driving aggressive increases.

On the Transpacific trade, rates remain relatively stable with slight upward movement. Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York are reflecting a balanced market, where demand remains steady, but the primary driver of pricing is shifting toward cost pressure rather than volume growth.

The key driver this week is fuel. With oil prices moving above $100 per barrel and war-risk premiums increasing, carriers are facing higher operating costs across global networks. While South Africa’s main trade lanes are not directly disrupted, these cost increases are being applied globally, supporting freight rates across most major routes.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a demand-led recovery to a cost-driven environment. As fuel prices rise and geopolitical uncertainty persists, freight rates are expected to remain firm with a gradual upward bias in the short term.

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This week’s news was brought to you by:

FNB First Trade 360 – a digital logistics platform and Exporters Western Cape

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