Welcome to another Logistics News Update.
Easter has come and gone, and with it, a fuel shock that will be felt across every supply chain in the country. Diesel has increased by R7.51/litre from 1 April one of the largest single monthly hikes on record. Government softened the blow with a temporary R3/litre reduction in the General Fuel Levy for April, but this relief is being reviewed monthly and could fall away in May 2026, potentially adding R3 back onto whatever the new price movement brings. With Brent crude currently sitting at $111.65/barrel at time of writing driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict there is little sign of relief on the horizon. Until the geopolitical situation stabilises, elevated fuel costs look set to remain a feature of doing business. Be prepared for another increase in May, make sure you calculate this into your logistics costs.
Agri & Transport Summary
South Africa’s agricultural exports continue to show strong momentum, with the citrus season expected to grow again this year despite increasing global challenges. Demand across key markets remains stable, and the sector continues to play a critical role in overall export performance. However, this growth is now coming under pressure from rising input and logistics costs. Port performance remains stable, with no major congestion reported across key terminals. Durban continues to operate efficiently, while Cape Town remains weather-sensitive but within normal operating conditions. The system is currently holding from an operational perspective, with cargo moving and volumes increasing as the export season ramps up.
The key pressure point has now fully shifted to cost. The confirmed fuel price increase will have a direct impact on road transport, which remains the backbone of agricultural logistics. With the majority of export volumes, particularly citrus, moved inland by road, higher diesel prices will drive up transport costs, fuel levies and overall landed costs. For exporters, the focus this season needs to be on execution and cost control. Securing reliable transport capacity, managing fuel exposure and planning movements early will be critical to maintaining margins as volumes increase and cost pressure moves through the supply chain.
Let’s Learn – Why cost control now matters more than rate negotiation
Many importers and exporters look at freight rates in isolation. In reality, fuel is one of the largest hidden drivers of total logistics cost, and when it moves sharply, it affects far more than just the transport line item.
Why this matters now:
With fuel prices now increased, costs across the supply chain are already adjusting. Transport rates, surcharges and inland costs will move quickly, often after rates have already been agreed. This means that even well-negotiated freight rates can be eroded by rising fuel and operational costs.
Where the risk shows up:
Agreed transport rates being adjusted through fuel levies
Additional surcharges applied after booking
Higher inland transport costs not factored into original pricing
Margin erosion due to delayed cost recovery
Your Approach:
Do not focus only on the rate. Review total landed cost continuously, understand where adjustments can occur, and build flexibility into pricing and contracts. In a rising cost environment, protecting margin comes from visibility and control, not just negotiation.
Logistics & Trade Headlines
- Fuel price increase now in effect from April: The latest adjustment has been implemented, with a significant increase in diesel and petrol prices despite a temporary fuel levy reduction. This confirms immediate cost pressure across transport and logistics.
- Global risk remains cost-driven rather than demand-driven: Freight markets continue to be influenced by higher oil prices, bunker costs and war-risk premiums rather than increased cargo demand.
- No direct disruption to South Africa’s main trade lanes: Asia to South Africa container routes remain operational, with the impact of the Middle East conflict being indirect through cost and market volatility rather than physical delays.
- Freight rates stabilising but supported by higher costs: The Drewry World Container Index remained stable this week, with carriers expected to push increases as bunker costs rise.
- Bunker fuel now driving carrier pricing decisions: Shipping lines are implementing surcharges and adjusting operations in response to higher fuel costs, reinforcing upward pressure on freight rates.
- Airfreight showing recovery locally but remains exposed globally: Air cargo volumes have improved week on week, although global capacity remains sensitive to Middle East disruptions and routing constraints.
- Port performance stable but volumes softer this week: South African ports are operating efficiently with no major congestion, although overall container volumes declined week on week.
- Cape Town and Durban operating within normal parameters: Minor weather and volume fluctuations were reported, but no significant backlog or anchorage pressure developed.
- Rail constraints continue to impact inland movement: Reduced rail volumes and operational interruptions are maintaining pressure on road transport and inland logistics.
- Inland and border pressure increasing: Border crossing times and regional delays have increased, highlighting ongoing inefficiencies across key corridors.
NEWS
Citrus exports set for growth despite global challenges
South Africa’s citrus industry is heading into the 2026 export season with a positive outlook, with total exports expected to reach between 210 million and 215 million cartons, representing growth of around 3% to 5% compared to last year. This continues the sector’s upward trajectory and reinforces its position as one of the country’s most important agricultural export industries.
Growth is being driven by strong performance in key categories, particularly lemons and grapefruit. Lemon exports are expected to increase by around 10%, while grapefruit volumes could rise by as much as 16%, supported by favourable growing conditions and new production coming online. Orange volumes are more balanced, with Valencia showing slight growth and navels moderating after last year’s record levels.
Despite this positive outlook, the industry is entering the season under increasing pressure from global challenges. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising fuel prices and uncertainty around demand in key export markets are all factors that could influence the season. There are also ongoing trade constraints, particularly in the EU, as well as the need for improved access to markets such as China, India and the United States.
From a logistics perspective, the biggest risk is not production but execution. The citrus industry remains heavily reliant on road transport to move fruit from farms to ports, making it highly exposed to fuel price increases and inland cost pressure. At the same time, rail inefficiencies and broader logistics constraints continue to limit the sector’s ability to scale efficiently.
The outlook remains cautiously positive. If key risks are managed and logistics execution holds, the industry is on track for another strong export season. However, success this year will depend less on production volumes and more on the ability to manage cost, maintain efficiency and respond quickly to changing global conditions.
Source: FreightNews
Port Operations Summary: – Port Update:
Key Highlights from Last Week’s Discussions – 29th March 2026
Source: BUSA, SAAFF, and global logistics data
Port Operations
Port performance remained stable across South Africa, with no major congestion reported despite increasing volumes.
• Total container volumes increased by approximately 18% week on week to 52,833 TEUs
• An average of 7,548 TEUs handled per day, above projections
• Cape Town experienced intermittent weather delays but maintained steady operations with limited backlog
• Durban operations remained stable, with vessel queues unchanged and turnaround times consistent
• Ngqura and Port Elizabeth operated steadily, with minor weather-related delays and lower volumes in Port Elizabeth
Key Insight: Port operations are stable and handling increased volumes effectively, with no signs of congestion pressure. Weather remains the only short-term disruption risk.operational performance.
Air Cargo
Airfreight showed early signs of recovery but remains under pressure from global disruptions.
• Total air cargo volumes increased by approximately 3% week on week to 7,686 tons
• Inbound volumes increased by 7%, while outbound declined slightly by 1%
• Volumes remain above last year and pre-pandemic levels despite recent disruptions
• Global air cargo remains disrupted, with capacity constraints linked to Middle East airspace closures
Key Insight: Airfreight demand remains resilient, but capacity constraints and geopolitical disruption continue to drive volatility in pricing and routing.
Road and Border Crossings
Road transport conditions remain stable but are becoming more strained.
• South African border crossing times increased to approximately 10.8 hours, up week on week
• SADC border crossings remained stable at approximately 6.6 hours
• Lebombo corridor volumes remained stable, with slight increases in processing times
• Infrastructure constraints, congestion and regulatory changes continue to impact key corridors
Key Insight: Border performance is becoming more inconsistent, with delays increasing due to structural inefficiencies rather than volume pressure.
Ocean Freight and Global Shipping
Global shipping remains under pressure from energy-driven disruption.
• Container freight rates increased by approximately 4.9% to $2,279 per 40ft container
• Rate increases are geographically concentrated, particularly on Middle East-linked routes
• War-risk surcharges and bunker costs continue to increase, raising overall logistics costs
• No system-wide capacity shock observed, with networks adjusting through rerouting rather than withdrawal
Key Insight: The global market remains stable from a capacity perspective, but cost escalation driven by fuel and geopolitical risk continues to support higher freight rates.uption.
Strategic Outlook
The dominant shift in the market is now clearly cost-driven. Fuel, energy and geopolitical risk are feeding directly into logistics pricing, while operational performance remains stable. Businesses should focus on managing cost exposure, particularly fuel-related increases, rather than expecting disruption-driven delays in the short term.
Global Freight Rates
Drewry’s World Container Index increased by approximately 4.9% this week to $2,279 per 40ft container, confirming continued upward pressure on global freight rates. The increase remains moderate and is largely driven by rising fuel costs and geopolitical risk rather than a surge in demand.
On the Asia – Europe trade, rates remain firm with controlled capacity supporting pricing levels. While increases are not aggressive, carriers continue to manage supply through selective blank sailings, with a clear focus on maintaining margins as operating costs rise. The market remains stable, but cost pressure is beginning to influence pricing decisions more consistently.
On the Transpacific trade, rates are showing similar stability, with only marginal upward movement. Demand remains steady, but the key driver is no longer volume. Instead, higher bunker fuel costs and operational adjustments are starting to shape pricing, keeping rates supported across these lanes.
The impact of the Middle East conflict remains concentrated rather than global. While war-risk premiums and fuel costs have increased significantly, most global trade lanes, including South Africa’s Far East routes, are not directly disrupted. Carriers are adjusting networks through rerouting and cost recovery rather than reducing capacity.
Overall, the market remains stable from a supply perspective but is becoming increasingly cost-driven. As fuel prices remain elevated and geopolitical risk persists, freight rates are expected to stay firm, with gradual upward pressure in the near term rather than sharp increases.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is based on reliable sources and has been carefully verified. This Logistics News is distributed free of charge. If you wish to unsubscribe from our mailing list, please reply to this email with “unsubscribe” in the subject line. Please note that all content is adapted or directly quoted from its original sources. We take no responsibility for any inaccurate reporting; we are only adapting the news for you.
This week’s news was brought to you by:
FNB First Trade 360 – a digital logistics platform and Exporters Western Cape
“This information contained herein is being made available for indicative purposes only and does not purport to be comprehensive as the information may have been obtained from publicly available sources that have not been verified by FirstRand Bank Limited (“FRB”) or any other person. No representation or warranty, express, implied or by omission, is or will be given by FRB, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, advisers, representatives or any other person as to the adequacy, reasonableness, accuracy or completeness of this information. No responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency thereof, or for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, relating thereto. In particular, but without limitation, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts and nothing contained herein should be, relied on as a promise or representation as to the past or future. FRB does not undertake any obligation to provide any additional information or to update the information contained herein or to correct any inaccuracies that may become apparent. The receipt of this information by any person is not to be taken as constituting the giving of any advice by FRB to any such person, nor to constitute such person a client of FRB.”
