Containers are up by 9% this week; air cargo is down by 6%
Good morning, colleagues and interested parties
We are sharing the latest version of the cargo report for distribution.
The focus of this week’s report revolves around the impact of the Iran conflict:
1. Current status on global shipping/Iran conflict
a. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed, with vessel transits down by roughly -97% as tanker movements carrying about 20% of global oil supply have frozen and container vessels accumulate at spillover ports awaiting instructions.
b. Looking ahead, (1) uncertainty over energy supply, (2) war-risk insurance, and (3) longer shipping routes are expected to (4) tighten shipping capacity and (5) increase bunker fuel costs.
c. Global container throughput in January down by about -5,4% (m/m) to approx. 16 million TEUs, although trade remained +3,6% higher (y/y).
2. Iran conflict disrupts global air cargo networks:
a. Gulf airspace closures have removed nearly 40% of Asia–Europe air cargo capacity, forcing (1) widespread flight rerouting, (2) increased use of cross-border trucking, and (3) a sharp rise in airfreight rates across affected trade lanes.
b. Disruptions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have reduced refined fuel flows by roughly 70–80%, tightening jet fuel availability (especially in the EU).
